Saturday, June 30, 2007

Thomas Demark Indicator

The DeMarker indicator is an attempt to overcome the shortcomings of classical overbought / oversold indicators. In Forex The DeMarker Indicator identifies potential price bottoms and tops. It accomplishes this by making price comparisons from one bar to the next and measuring the level of price demand

here is the formula
highm = IIF( H > Ref( H, -1 ), H - Ref( H, - 1), 0 );
lowm = IIF( L < Ref( L, -1 ), Ref( L, - 1 ) - L, 0 );

Tom D = 100 * Sum( highm, 13 )/( Sum( lowm, 13 ) + Sum( highm, 13 ) );

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Holy Grail in Forex, is it really exist?

The Holy Grail is often referred to in trading circles as the perfect trading system; the perfect conditions or indicator that will guarantee success in every trade you enter. All traders at some stage undertake the search for the Holy Grail whether it is consciously or subconsciously.

The reality of trading is that there is no such trading system in existence. It never has existed and never will. The fact that some software packages label an indicator the ‘Holy Grail’ only serves to whet the appetite of some people further and arouse their suspicion of what it could be and how they will find it.

It is also widely accepted that your own psychology or mindset is the largest single determinant of your trading success followed by your ability to manage risk. The small remainder of the ingredients to your trading success is your system which includes your entry signal.

When most traders start trading, they spend most of their time on developing their entry conditions. They will learn about various technical indicators, trends and chart patterns, and how they can be interpreted and applied to their trading.

In his book ‘Market Wizards’, Jack Schwager interviews numerous profitable traders in the United States. There is an interesting observation to be made about most of them. Often Schwager asked if they were to start trading again, what would they do differently.

Many answered that they would not have wasted as much time initially on their entry signals and they would have rather spent that time concentrating and developing their risk management rules and working on their own mindset or psychology.

When trading does not go well for most traders though, they begin to wonder what part of their entry conditions is failing them. Thoughts like is it the data they are using, the software, should they use different moving averages like weighted or exponential, or look at hourly data.

It is obvious that entry conditions are a necessary part of any trading plan but their importance is often overrated. Numerous texts have been written about various entry signals yet not enough focus on what is really important to trading.

This may not help the beginner who naturally assumes that their entry signal is the most important part of their trading plan and therefore they shall spend most of their time developing that.

Unfortunately some traders who have looked for the Holy Grail try to lay the blame for their lack of success on external factors. It might be the software they are using or the new entry signal they acquired from reading a book, but at the end of the day they should look no further than themselves.

Successful traders have numerous personal traits in common. They are focussed, disciplined, passionate, and are totally committed to their trading. They are humble and always prepared to learn from their mistakes. The Holy Grail of trading has never existed and never will.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Elliott wave

The Elliott wave principle (1871–1948), a professional , or wave principle, is a form of technical analysis that investors use to forecast trends in the financial markets and other collective activities. Ralph Nelson Elliottaccountant, developed the concept in the 1930s, proposing that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves, or simply waves. He published his views of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle (1938), in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and most fully in his final major work, Nature’s Laws – The Secret of the Universe (1946). Elliott said that "because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable."

lliott Wave analysts (or "Elliotticians") say that they may not even need to look at a price chart to determine where a market lies in its wave pattern. Each wave has its own "signature," which often reflects the psychology of the moment. Understanding how and why the waves develop is the key to applying the Wave Principle; that understanding includes recognizing the characteristics described below.

These wave characteristics assume a bull market in equities. The characteristics apply in reverse in bear markets.

  • Wave 1: First waves are rarely recognized at their inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is just about universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; most likely, the economy does not look strong either. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.
  • Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As the markets retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.
  • Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, and corrects are short-lived and shallow. Anybody looking to "get in on a pull-back" is likely going to miss the boat. As wave three starts, news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative. But, by the midpoint of wave three, "the crowd" will often now be on board with the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618 : 1.
  • Wave 4: Fourth waves are typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander in a sideways pattern for an extended period, with wave four typically retracing less than 38.2% of wave three. Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back, if you understand the potential for wave 5 ahead. However, possibly the single most distinguishing feature of fourth waves is that they are often very difficult to count.
  • Wave 5: The fifth wave is the final leg of a five wave move. The news is now almost universally positive and everybody is bullish. Unfortunately, this is the point when many "average investors" finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is lower in wave five than in wave three, and many technical momentum indicators will start showing divergences (prices reach a new high, the indicator does not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how those calling for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).
  • Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. During wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that suggest a wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.
  • Wave B: Prices move back higher, and is seen as a resumption of the now long gone bull market by many. For those familiar with classical technical analysis, the peak would be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. Volume during a wave B should be lower than seen in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.
  • Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everybody realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or larger.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Trading Advice (G/J)

244.50 cannot hold Gj yesterday, so i open another buy position on 244.40. as i said before if it break that level G/J will continue to rise, probably until 250. my advice is keep buy dips when u see small correction on this pair. do not sell unless u got very positif signal for shorting this beast. stay aware with major correction, don't forget to put ur stop loss. Happy Trading :)

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Daily Pivot Points for June 15 2007


Open = 1.3310
High = 1.3386
Low = 1.3305
Close = 1.3378

Pivot = 1.3356
Support and resistance for june 18 2007
R1 = 1.3408
R2 = 1.3437
R3 = 1.3489
S1 = 1.3327
S2 = 1.3275
S3 = 1.3246


Open = 1.9693
High = 1.9779
Low = 1.9688
Close = 1.9752

Pivot = 1.9740
Support and resistance for june 18 2007
R1 = 1.9791
R2 = 1.9831
R3 = 1.9882
S1 = 1.9700
S2 = 1.9649
S3 = 1.9609

Trading Advice (G/J)

GJ now at a very high position. selling this pair will be good if she cannot break 244.40. My indicator say that G/J now is overbought. next week will be a nice drop for this pair. but becarefull, BOJ are hold the interest rate. and not planning to hike interest rate till september. so the overall trend is still Bullish. this down scenario will fail if G/j break 245, in that case we might see 250 very soon

Tips On How To Trade Using Traditional Pivot Points

The simplest way to open position without reading any chart is by using traditional pivot point. but of course u still need confirmation from indicator wether the market trend is UP or Down. here are some ways to Trade using pivot points

  • For a Bounce scenario 1; take sell position when the market price touch R1, with S1 as Ur firt Target point and stop lost at R2
  • For a Breakout senario 1; take buy position when the market price touch R1, with R2 as Ur first Target point and stop lost at Pivot
  • For a Bounce scenario 2; take buy position when the market price touch S1, with R1 as Ur firt Target point and stop lost at S2
  • For a Breakout senario 2; take sell position when the market price touch S1, with S2 as Ur first Target point and stop lost at Pivot
The Problem is how u know wether it's will be a bounce or breakout. u need to confirm with ur indicator to know this, the trend is UP or down. i'll be adding how to trade using Thomas DeMark's Pivot Point soon. Happy trading :)

Friday, June 15, 2007

Daily Pivot Points for June 14 2007


Open = 1.3310
High = 1.3324
Low = 1.3279
Close = 1.3310

Pivot = 1.3304
Support and resistance for june 15 2007
R1 = 1.3330
R2 = 1.3349
R3 = 1.3375
S1 = 1.3285
S2 = 1.3259
S3 = 1.3240


Open = 1.9726
High = 1.9736
Low = 1.9658
Close = 1.9692

Pivot = 1.9695
Support and resistance for june 15 2007
R1 = 1.9733
R2 = 1.9773
R3 = 1.9811
S1 = 1.9655
S2 = 1.9617
S3 = 1.9577

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Daily Pivot Points for June 13 2007


Open = 1.3302
High = 1.3315
Low = 1.3264
Close = 1.331

Pivot = 1.3296
Support and resistance for june 14 2007
R1 = 1.3329
R2 = 1.3347
R3 = 1.3380
S1 = 1.3278
S2 = 1.3245
S3 = 1.3227


Open = 1.9742
High = 1.9764
Low = 1.9677
Close = 1.9726

Pivot = 1.9722
Support and resistance for june 14 2007
R1 = 1.9768
R2 = 1.9809
R3 = 1.9855
S1 = 1.9681
S2 = 1.9635
S3 = 1.9594

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Technical analysis vs fundamental analysis

The main difference between fundamental and technical analysis consists in that technical analysis is the study of charts, trend lines, support, resistance levels and patterns. Technical traders follow this data in order to predict the direction a currency will take. Fundamental analysis includes the analysis and interpretation of global events, economic, political, financial events and other variables that may cause a currency to fluctuate.

Technical Analysis operates on the theory that market prices at any given point in time reflect all known factors affecting supply and demand for a particular market. Consequently, technical analysis focuses, not on evaluating those factors directly, but on an analysis of market prices themselves. This approach theorize that a detailed analysis of, among other things, actual daily, weekly and monthly price fluctuations is the most effective means of attempting to capitalize on the future course of price movements. Technical strategies generally utilize a series of mathematical measurements and calculations designed to monitor market activity. Trading decisions are based on signals generated by charts, manual calculations, computers or their combinations.

While technical analysis concentrates on the study of market action, fundamental analysis focuses on the economic forces which cause prices to move higher, or lower, or stay the same. The intrinsic value is what the fundamentals indicate one currency is actually worth against another currency. If this intrinsic value is under the current market price, then the currency is overpriced and should be sold. If market price is below the intrinsic value, then the market is undervalued and should be bought. Both of these approaches to market forecasting attempt to solve the same problem, that is, to determine the direction prices are likely to move. They just approach the problem from different directions.

A "fundamentalist" studies the cause of market movement, while a technician studies the effect. Most market traders classify themselves as either technicians or fundamentalists. In reality, there is a lot of overlap. Most fundamentalists have a working knowledge of the basic tenets of chart analysis. At the same time, most technicians have at least a passing awareness of the fundamentals. The problem is that the charts and fundamentals are often in conflict with each other. Usually at the beginning of important market moves, the fundamentals do not explain or support what the market seems to be doing. It is at these critical times in the trend that these two approaches seem to differ the most.

Fundamental Analysis is based on the study of factors external to the trading markets which affect the supply and demand of a particular market. It is in stark contrast to technical analysis since it focuses, not on price but on factors like weather, government policies, domestic and foreign political and economic events and changing trade prospects.

Fundamental analysis theorizes that by monitoring relevant supply and demand factors for a particular market, a state of current or potential disequilibrium of market conditions may be identified before the state has been reflected in the price level of that market. Fundamental analysis assumes that markets are imperfect, that information is not instantaneously assimilated or disseminated and that econometric models can be constructed to generate equilibrium prices, which may indicate that current prices are inconsistent with underlying economic conditions, and will, accordingly, change in the future.

Daily Pivot point for June 12 2007


Open = 1.3357
High = 1.3369
Low = 1.3301
Close = 1.3302

Pivot = 1.3324
Support and resistance for june 13 2007
R1 = 1.3347
R2 = 1.3392
R3 = 1.3415
S1 = 1.3279
S2 = 1.3256
S3 = 1.3211


Open = 1.9692
High = 1.9783
Low = 1.9688
Close = 1.974

Pivot = 1.9737
Support and resistance for june 13 2007
R1 = 1.9786
R2 = 1.9832
R3 = 1.9881
S1 = 1.9691
S2 = 1.9642
S3 = 1.9596

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Trading Advice (G/U)

Today UK CPI comes out worse than expected but UK trade balance comes out better than expected. overall news from UK coming out better than forcasted. i believe if today break support at 1.9790 today, then 2.050 is coming out soon this week. buy position is preferable in this pair. have a good trade

Monday, June 11, 2007

Trading Advice

Today UK PPI input come out better than forcasted, previous value was 0.2% and up till 1.2 %. but yet GBP/USD go around 1.9670-1690. My advice is, if it break 1.9720 then consider to go long and if it break 1.9620 then we should go short in this pair. if it go no where. then better to stay out from the market today :)

Daily Pivot point for June 8 2007


Open = 1.3426
High = 1.3428
Low = 1.3321
Close = 1.3368

Pivot = 1.3372
Support and resistance for june 11 2007
R1 = 1.3424
R2 = 1.3479
R3 = 1.3531
S1 = 1.3317

S2 = 1.3265

S3 = 1.3210


Open = 1.9771
High = 1.9793
Low = 1.9623
Close = 1.9681

Pivot = 1.9699
Support and resistance for june 11 2007
R1 = 1.9775
R2 = 1.9869
R3 = 1.9945
S1 = 1.9605
S2 = 1.9529
S3 = 1.9435

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Market Review For The Week Ahead


There are several important news coming out from UK and US next week, there are PPI Input on monday from UK with previous value 0.7%, and forcasted to be down to 0.6 %. and also CPI report on tuesday with value
2.8%, and forcasted to be down to 2.6 %. From US PPI and CPI report on Thursday and friday forcasted to be better.

with all data forcasted for next week, I'm expecting G/U to break 1.9600 before it continus to move downward. but if G/U maintain above 19700, then be ready to reload ur long and 2.0050 will be the target.

Saturday, June 9, 2007

Tips How To Earn Some Money On the Internet

U want to trade Forex but u don't have money to start with? well, before u start trading u might want to get the fund to trade first. here is some tips from me how to earn online.

First, the best way to start earn online is using google adsense. if u have website and want to earn from it. google adsense is the best choice. u can earn on google adsense by impressions on ur site or pay per click. u don't have website yet? it's simple, u can use blogger to start ur blog and put ur google adsense there. all u need to do is prepare ur site and blog, then apply for google adsense here :

After google accept ur adsense account. u need to advertise ur blog or site to get more visitor. and don't forget update it. coz search engine love it.

To lazy to make a site and blog? well there is always anoother method to earn :D. the simplest way is oining pay per post forum. some forum give good money for ur post. here are some good pay per post forum

Goldage forum, in goldage u can get 10 cent per post. i got paid for total $100 in my e-gold account. Join this forum now, they give us $10 for 250 post. follow this link .

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have a good time earn online, and remember to always search for any opportunity :)

Friday, June 8, 2007

Dollar continue to strengthen today

The dollar keep on strengthened because the market continued to respond to yesterday's jump in US Treasury yields, which reflects the growing expectation that US interest rates will remain elevated. this will make US dollar Bullish in the middle term

Good Forex Broker For intermediate Trader

if u think u are not beginner trader anymore, and have some more money. it's good if u step forward and use broker that require u to deposit more than $20. it's good way to train ur mental to trade with more money u deposit. here are some good broker that i know and already used

Norfinance (Use metatrader trading platform) allow deposit via visa electron and wire transfer
Spread: from 2 pips.
Minimum deposit — from 100 dollars.
Instant Execution - Quotation system.
They have Credit Leverage of your choice from 1:1 to 1:500 (For deposits not exceeding 100,000 USD).

(Use metatrader trading platform)

Realtrader has micro or mini account. mimimum deposit is $20 for micro account. Credit leverage is 1:100. u can deposit via e-gold, webmoney, or wire transfer

Daily Pivot point for June 7 2007


Open = 1.3498
High = 1.3512
Low = 1.3422
Close = 1.3425

Pivot = 1.3453
Support and resistance for june 8 2007
R1 = 1.3484

R2 = 1.3543
R3 = 1.3574
S1 = 1.3394
S2 = 1.3363
S3 = 1.3304


Open = 1.9925
High = 1.9943
Low = 1.9747
Close = 1.9771

Pivot = 1.9820
Support and resistance for june 8 2007
R1 = 1.9894

R2 = 2.0016
R3 = 2.009
S1 = 1.9698
S2 = 1.9624
S3 = 1.9502

Thursday, June 7, 2007

Poundsterling falls after BoE leaves rates unchanged

Today BOE announce rates and keep unchange it from 5.50%. this caused GBP collapse all across the board. Market still believe that we would have rate hike to 5.75 % on july 2007. meanwhile. buying dip is still my favourite

Daily Pivot point for June 6 2007


Open = 1.3519
High = 1.3538
Low = 1.3485
Close = 1.3497

Support and resistance for june 7 2007
R1 = 1.3528
R2 = 1.3560
R3 = 1.3581

S1 = 1.3475
S2 = 1.3454
S3 = 1.3422


Open = 1.9930
High = 1.9957
Low = 1.9907
Close = 1.9924

Support and resistance for june 7 2007
R1 = 1.9952
R2 = 1.9979
R3 = 2.0002

S1 = 1.9902
S2 = 1.9879
S3 = 1.9852

How to Calculate Pivot points

Pivot points are very useful if u are intraday trader. Pivot points are a popular tool used by futures traders in all sorts of markets, ranging from equity indices to crude oil. And, sure enough, pivot points are readily applied to trading currency futures.

Pivot points are support and resistance levels derived from the previous period's high, low, and closing values. There are a variety of pivot values with which to trade, including monthly, weekly, and daily values. You could even calculate hourly values. When determining which period to trade with, you've got to consider your time frame as an individual and your particular style. I'll use daily pivot points for the purpose of this article since the focus is day trading.

Daily pivot points give a structure to each new trading day in the currency market. With these values you can use traditional support and resistance techniques to enter and exit trades. But before I get to the strategy, I'll show you how to calculate pivot values.

Pivot Point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
Resistance 1 (R1) = (2 x Pivot Point) - Low
Support 1 (S1) = (2 x Pivot Point) - High
Resistance 2 (R2) = Pivot Point + (Resistance 1 - Support 1)
Support 2 (S2) = Pivot Point - (Resistance 1 - Support 1)

(Pivot values for several different currency pairs are posted on the TradingMarkets web site every day.)

The pivot values are plotted as horizontal levels which, in turn, serve as support and resistance. The pivot point itself can be thought of as the day's mid-point, or fulcrum. It's where the buyers and sellers meet to determine the day's trend in a currency pair. The support and resistance levels that are plotted around the pivot point are just that: potential support and resistance.

A daily pivot point (in green), S2, S1, R1, and R2 values are plotted on the chart below of the EUR/USD FX future. The chart is a 5-minute interval. Notice how the Euro broke above the pivot point early in the day, and then proceeded to trade up to R1, where it met resistance and gyrated for the rest of the day.

For instant u can use pivot point calculator for free. u can download this calculator in this site
Pivot points Calculator

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Basic Trading Strategy

Trading strategy is applying technical and fundamental analysis in a trading method, this method (strategy) have to document three things before we can call it strategy:

1- The chart setup.
2- Entry point.
3- Exit point.

Let’s look in these basic elements of any strategy:

1- Chart setup:

Any trading strategy have to start with information about the chart setup of the strategy which include:

  • The indicators the strategy uses and their settings
  • The time frame of the chart(s) to use.
  • The currencies the strategy work with.

Some of strategies extends the basic requirements of the chart setup but it can be less than those three basics.

2- Entry point:

The strategy main approach is persuading you that if you entered the market now and at this point you will be a winner.
The entry points distinguishing between the strategies and it even between the same strategy but different versions or updates.

Some simple strategies requires less than two conditions to occur to trigger the Buy/Sell signals, for example the Moving Average strategy requires only crossing slow and fast moving average indicators.

Complex strategies requires more conditions for more accuracy, however it trades leaser than simple strategies.

3- Exit point:

Entering a trade at the good time is very important thing the strategy, however, exiting the trade is more important than entering the trade.
Ideas like “Let the profit run and cut losses earlier” and “Money Management” making the exiting is a strategy itself.

Exiting strategy have to care about the following points:

1- Stop loss level: When to exit the trade with the minimum loss.

2- Take profit level: When to exit the trade with the maximum profit you can take.

3- Close conditions: The strategy may provide point where the trade have to be close. For example in our simple moving average crossing strategy; if the open position was a result of an up cross of the fast to the slow moving average, the opened position have to be closed when in the cross reversal.

How to Earn From Internet For Nubie

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Most recommended is paid to post on forum, the best paid on forum is

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Good Forex Broker for Beginner Trader

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Tuesday, June 5, 2007

What Is Forex?

FOREX or The Foreign exchange rate market is an international market where various currency exchange transactions take place; this is in the shape of simultaneously buying one currency and selling another. The most commonly traded currencies are referred to as “Majors”; over 85% of daily transactions on Forex trading involve the Majors. These seven currencies are the US Currency (Dollar, USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Swiss Franc (CHF), Canadian Dollar (CAD) and Australian Dollar (AUD). The Forex system in operation today was established in the 1970s when free currency exchange rates were introduced, this period also saw the US Dollar overtake the British Pound as the benchmark currency. Prior to this and in particular during World War II, exchange rate remained more stable.

Forex trading in simplest terms is the buying of one currency and the selling of another. Forex trading, also referred to, as “FX” is open to corporations, small businesses, commercial banks, investment funds and private individuals, it is the largest financial market in the world averaging a daily turnover of over $1 trillion dollars, making it a diverse and exciting market. It is a 24-hour market enabling it to accommodate constant changing world currency exchange rates . According to New York time, trading begins at 2.15pm on Sunday in Sydney and Singapore and progresses through to Tokyo at 7pm, London at 2am and reaches New York at 8am. This leaves investors free to respond to global political, economic and social events when they take place, day or night.

Forex is an interbank market that was created in 1971 when international trade transitioned from fixed to floating exchange rates. Since then the rates of currencies relative to each other are determined by the most obvious means which is the exchange at a mutually agreed rate.

This market surpasses the others in its volume. For example, the daily turnover of world securities market is estimated at $300 billion, while Forex approaches 1 to 3 TRILLION US dollars in the same amount of time.

However, Forex is not a market in a traditional sense. It doesn't have a fixed location of the trading floor as, for example, futures market does. The trading is done over the telephone and at the computer terminals in hundreds of banks around the world simultaneously.

Futures and securities markets have one more significant feature distinguishing them from Forex, and at the same time restricting them. The trading is suspended at the end of each day and resumed only next morning. Thus, should certain significant developments occur in the USA, the opening of Russian market next morning could quite surprise you, if you're trading there.

Forex is open 24 hours a day, and the currency exchange operations are maintained throught working days of the week. Almost every time zone (London, New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney) has dealers willing to quote currencies.